Jun
24
Holden-McCaskill Update
June 24, 2004 |
Yesterday’s news in the Missouri Governor’s race…
Governor Holden officially launched his re-election campaign in Independence, yet again trying to invoke Truman’s legacy.
The Holden campaign also trumpeted a new poll giving him a lead over primary challenger Claire McCaskill, however the poll is suspect since it was comimssioned by the Holden campaign and is significantly different that previous independent polls.
Claire McCaskill scored another prominent endorsement, former Lt. Governor Harriett Woods. The former Holden ally said “… loyalty is not enough. There is too much at stake”
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I wouldn’t call the poll “suspect”. Campaign’s dont spend $40,000 on a poll to have the pollster make up the numbers. They want a true as possible snapshot of the race at a given time.
Also the National Journal Hotline reported to day that:
A Decision Research (D) poll; conducted 6/12-14 for an undisclosed client; surveyed 400 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4.7% (release, 6/23). Dems tested: Gov. Bob Holden and State Auditor Claire McCaskill (Hotline sources, 6/24).
Dem Primary Matchup
Holden 49%
McCaskill 34%
Undec. 17%
Holden’s numbers are looking even less suspect.
After looking at the polls more closely, it seems that the earlier polls included people who were leaning one or the other. The two newest polls count people that are definitely decided. So Holden has a strong core that isn’t wavering, but much of the undecided is at least leaning somewhat towards Holden. Regardless, if Holden can’t get above 50% in even the most favorable poll, then it doesn’t look good for him.